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Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.4 Percent in June from May

Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.4 Percent in June from May

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BTS 37-06
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568

Tuesday, Aug. 8, 2006 - The Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.4 percent in June from its May level, dropping after three consecutive monthly increases, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).

The June decline was only the second monthly decline in 2006 (Table 2).

For the first half of 2006, the TSI, a combination of the freight and passenger indexes, rose 1.3 percent, the third consecutive December-to-June rise (Table 3).

The June level of 111.9 for the combined freight and passenger index was 0.4 percent higher than the June 2005 level, the fourth consecutive increase from June of the previous year but the smallest year-to-year rise since a decline in 2002 (Table 4). The June level was 11.7 percent higher than the June level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5).

TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit.

The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present.  The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental.  The index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the July index is scheduled for Sept. 6.

Transportation Services Index for Freight

The TSI for freight fell 0.5 percent in June from the May level, turning down after a one-month rise (Table 6). The Freight TSI June 2006 level rose 0.3 percent from the June 2005 level, the fifth consecutive rise from June of the previous year but the smallest year-to-year rise since a decline in 2001 (Table 7). For the first six months of 2006, the Freight TSI rose 1.5 percent, the third consecutive rise in the December-to-June period (Table 3).

Transportation Services Index for Passengers

The TSI for passengers fell 0.2 percent in June from the May level, falling for the second consecutive month (Table 8). The Passenger TSI June 2006 level rose 0.5 percent from the June 2005 level, the third consecutive rise from June of the previous year but the smallest rise since there was no change from June 2002 to June 2003 (Table 9). For the first six months of 2006, the Passenger TSI rose 0.5 percent, the third consecutive December-to-June rise but the smallest rise in the six-month period since a decline in 2003 (Table 3).

2nd Quarter 2006 Changes

On a quarterly basis, the TSI rise of 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2006 was the second quarterly increase following three consecutive quarterly declines at the end of 2005 (Table 10). The Freight TSI increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2006 was the third consecutive quarterly increase (Table 11). The Passenger TSI increase of 0.7 percent in the second quarter of 2006 followed two quarterly declines (Table 12).

More on TSI

NOTE:TSI numbers for February 2006 (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The February TSI is 109.4, revised from the 110.2 reported in the July release. The February Freight TSI is 109.7, revised from 111.4. The February Passenger TSI is 108.7, revised from 107.4. The TSI for March, April, May and June are preliminary.

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary.  Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI.  All other revisions are held until an annual comprehensive revision of the TSI which will be released at the end of the calendar year. More information about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

Table 1: Transportation Services Index Since December 2005
Percent Change by Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  TSI Freight Passenger
Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change
December 110.5 -0.9 110.9 -1.1 109.5 -0.4
January 110.9 0.3 111.1 0.2 110.2 0.6
FebruaryR 109.4 -1.3 109.7 -1.3 108.7 -1.3
MarchP 111.0 1.5 111.6 1.8 109.2 0.5
AprilP 111.2 0.1 111.0 -0.5 110.5 1.2
MayP 112.4 1.1 113.2 1.9 110.2 -0.3
JuneP 111.9 -0.4 112.6 -0.5 110.0 -0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 2: Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2003 % Growth 2004 % Growth 2005 % Growth 2006 % Growth
January -1.0 -1.4 1.5 0.3
February -1.9 2.8 -1.4 (R) -1.3
March 0.9 0.7 1.5 (P) 1.5
April -0.5 0.7 0.0 (P) 0.1
May -0.2 -0.4 0.4 (P) 1.1
June 1.0 1.0 -0.5 (P) -0.4
July 1.3 -0.2 -0.1  
August -0.3 -0.4 -0.1  
September 1.1 0.5 -0.3  
October 0.7 0.1 -0.9  
November -0.1 0.9 1.6  
December 2.3 -0.3 -0.9  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 3: Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 1997-2006
Percent change from December of previous year
December to June

Excel | CSV

Year TSI Freight Passenger
1997 3.0 3.9 1.2
1998 2.9 4.4 -0.3
1999 2.1 2.5 1.2
2000 -1.8 -4.6 5.5
2001 0.7 1.1 -0.1
2002 4.4 4.3 4.7
2003 -1.7 -1.0 -3.7
2004 3.3 3.0 4.1
2005 1.4 0.9 2.5
2006P 1.3 1.5 0.5

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 4: Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the June TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  TSI Percent change from same month previous year
1997 91.1 4.8
1998 97.7 7.3
1999 99.8 2.1
2000 100.2 0.5
2001 99.3 -1.0
2002 99.2 -0.1
2003 100.7 1.5
2004 109.4 8.6
2005 111.4 1.9
2006P 111.9 0.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 5: Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2006 (June to June)

Excel | CSV

Percent change to June 2006 Since June. . . Duration in years
0.4 2005 1
2.4 2004 2
11.2 2003 3
12.8 2002 4
12.7 2001 5
11.7 2000 6
12.2 1999 7
14.5 1998 8
22.9 1997 9

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: The percent changes to May 2006 are all preliminary.

Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2003 % Growth 2004 % Growth 2005 % Growth 2006 % Growth
January -1.1 -1.6 1.4 0.2
February -1.4 2.6 -1.2 (R) -1.3
March 1.2 0.9 1.0 (P) 1.8
April 0.7 0.6 0.0 (P) -0.5
May -1.2 -0.3 0.2 (P) 1.9
June 0.8 0.8 -0.5 (P) -0.5
July 0.5 -0.5 -0.5  
August -0.1 -0.6 0.4  
September 0.6 0.5 -1.3  
October 1.3 -0.5 -0.6  
November -0.8 1.3 2.0  
December 2.9 -0.4 -1.1  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 7: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the June Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  Freight TSI Percent change from same month previous year
1997 92.4 5.3
1998 101.3 9.7
1999 102.4 1.0
2000 100.3 -2.1
2001 98.9 -1.4
2002 101.4 2.6
2003 103.5 2.0
2004 111.4 7.7
2005 112.2 0.7
2006P 112.6 0.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 8: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2003 % Growth 2004 % Growth 2005 % Growth 2006 % Growth
January -0.8 -1.1 1.5 0.6
February -3.1 3.4 -2.0 (R) -1.3
March 0.2 0.1 2.9 (P) 0.5
April -3.7 0.8 -0.1 (P) 1.2
May 2.3 -0.7 0.8 (P) -0.3
June 1.5 1.6 -0.5 (P) -0.2
July 3.4 0.5 0.9  
August -0.6 0.1 -1.3  
September 2.2 0.5 2.3  
October -0.7 1.6 -1.9  
November 1.3 -0.2 0.4  
December 1.1 -0.2 -0.4  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 9: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the June Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  Passenger TSI Percent change from same month previous year
1997 87.8 3.7
1998 89.6 2.1
1999 93.8 4.6
2000 100.2 6.9
2001 100.2 0.0
2002 93.9 -6.2
2003 94.0 0.0
2004 104.4 11.1
2005 109.4 4.8
2006P 110.0 0.5

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 10: Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1997-2006
Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Excel | CSV

Year 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
1997 1.8 1.2 4.0 0.3
1998 1.1 1.8 -0.9 0.9
1999 2.3 -0.2 2.3 0.0
2000 -2.5 0.8 -0.1 -1.6
2001 1.0 -0.3 -7.3 3.3
2002 2.3 2.1 0.7 2.6
2003 -2.0 0.2 2.1 2.9
2004 2.0 1.3 -0.1 0.6
2005 1.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3
2006 (P) 0.5 (P) 0.8    

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 11: Freight Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1997-2006
Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Excel | CSV

Year 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
1997 1.9 1.9 4.2 0.8
1998 1.8 2.6 -1.5 0.0
1999 2.9 -0.4 1.6 1.1
2000 -5.1 0.5 -1.4 -1.1
2001 1.3 -0.2 -1.5 -0.1
2002 1.6 2.7 1.1 1.9
2003 -1.3 0.3 1.0 3.5
2004 1.9 1.1 -0.6 0.4
2005 1.2 -0.3 -1.4 0.3
2006 (P) 0.6 (P) 0.9    

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 12: Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1997-2006
Percent Change from the last month of the previous quarter

Excel | CSV

Year 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth
1997 1.5 -0.3 3.5 -1.0
1998 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 2.8
1999 0.9 0.3 3.7 -2.3
2000 3.9 1.5 2.7 -2.5
2001 0.4 -0.6 -20.9 13.2
2002 4.0 0.7 -0.5 4.3
2003 -3.7 0.0 5.0 1.7
2004 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.2
2005 2.4 0.2 1.9 -1.9
2006 (P) -0.2 (P) 0.7    

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and interpretations.

The freight transportation index consists of:

For hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:

Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.