Table 4: HP-filtered TSI Turning Points Against the CCI Growth Cycles

Table 4: HP-filtered TSI Turning Points Against the CCI Growth Cycles

Growth Cycle Turning Points in the Coincident Index and TSI freight

Excel | CSV

  Economy TSI freight - HP filtered Lead / Lag of TSI in months
Peak Mar-79    
Trough Jul-80 Jul-80 0
Peak Jul-81 Jan-81 +6
Trough Dec-82 Nov-82 +1
Peak Sep-84 Apr-84 +6
Trough Jan-87 Oct-85 +13
Peak Jan-89 Jun-88 +7
Trough   Jul-89 --
Peak   Mar-90 --
Trough Dec-91 Mar-91 +9
Peak   Jul-92 --
Trough   Jul-93 --
Peak Jan-95 Dec-94 +1
Trough Jan-96 Jan-96 0
Peak Jun-00 Nov-99 +2
Trough Feb-02 Sep-01 +5


  Peak Trough
Average lead in months +4.4 +4.7
Range in months 1 to 7 0 to 13

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, http://www.bts.gov.