Figure 5 Growth Cycles in the Transportation Output Index

Figure 5
Growth Cycles in the Transportation Output Index

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  Deviation from PAT Smoothed
Jan-80 3.5  
Feb-80 2.5  
Mar-80 0  
Apr-80 -1.1 -0.69
May-80 -1.4 -1.54
Jun-80 -2.7 -1.53
Jul-80 -2.9 -1.41
Aug-80 -2.3 -1.10
Sep-80 -1.3 -0.11
Oct-80 0.2 0.89
Nov-80 0.1 0.97
Dec-80 3.1 1.84
Jan-81 2.9 2.10
Feb-81 2.5 1.62
Mar-81 2 1.71
Apr-81 1.5 1.20
May-81 0 0.85
Jun-81 0.6 0.40
Jul-81 1.6 0.59
Aug-81 -0.6 0.25
Sep-81 0.9 -0.15
Oct-81 0.8 -0.27
Nov-81 -0.4 -0.47
Dec-81 0.5 -0.01
Jan-82 -1.9 -0.78
Feb-82 -1 -0.98
Mar-82 -0.2 -0.79
Apr-82 -0.5 -0.92
May-82 -1.2 -1.07
Jun-82 0.5 -1.03
Jul-82 -1 -0.92
Aug-82 -1.2 -0.99
Sep-82 -0.8 -0.98
Oct-82 -2.9 -1.25
Nov-82 -2.2 -1.17
Dec-82 -0.5 -1.08
Jan-83 -0.9 -1.11
Feb-83 -1.1 -0.60
Mar-83 0.1 -0.16
Apr-83 -1.9 0.06
May-83 -1 -0.15
Jun-83 1.2 -0.24
Jul-83 0.6 0.23
Aug-83 0.3 0.00
Sep-83 0.2 0.26
Oct-83 -1.7 -0.01
Nov-83 -0.5 0.36
Dec-83 -0.4 0.12
Jan-84 0.1 0.42
Feb-84 2.1 1.47
Mar-84 1.9 1.35
Apr-84 1.2 1.61
May-84 2.6 1.60
Jun-84 2.5 1.62
Jul-84 0.6 1.41
Aug-84 2.4 1.20
Sep-84 -0.3 1.32
Oct-84 0.5 0.68
Nov-84 0.3 0.24
Dec-84 -0.6 -0.49
Jan-85 -0.2 0.03
Feb-85 -2 -0.46
Mar-85 -1.9 -0.59
Apr-85 -0.4 -0.67
May-85 0.3 -0.82
Jun-85 -1.9 -0.75
Jul-85 -1.5 -0.79
Aug-85 -1.3 -1.33
Sep-85 -2.9 -1.71
Oct-85 -1.8 -1.13
Nov-85 -2.7 -1.51
Dec-85 -0.6 -1.36
Jan-86 1.1 -0.56
Feb-86 -0.4 -0.99
Mar-86 -1.1 -0.79
Apr-86 0.5 -0.35
May-86 -0.7 -0.16
Jun-86 -1.5 -0.18
Jul-86 1.8 0.23
Aug-86 0.6 0.21
Sep-86 1.1 0.63
Oct-86 0.9 1.18
Nov-86 -1 0.43
Dec-86 1.5 0.99
Jan-87 0.8 0.95
Feb-87 1.1 0.80
Mar-87 1.4 1.10
Apr-87 1.8 1.28
May-87 -1.1 1.19
Jun-87 0.2 0.58
Jul-87 2.7 0.52
Aug-87 -0.7 0.46
Sep-87 1.6 0.32
Oct-87 1.2 -0.02
Nov-87 0.8 0.70
Dec-87 3 1.73
Jan-88 0.9 0.43
Feb-88 4.4 1.74
Mar-88 2.5 1.96
Apr-88 1.8 1.88
May-88 0.9 1.50
Jun-88 2.6 1.24
Jul-88 0.1 0.52
Aug-88 1.4 0.67
Sep-88 2.3 1.42
Oct-88 -0.4 0.68
Nov-88 1.5 0.13
Dec-88 2.7 0.04
Jan-89 0.1 -0.18
Feb-89 -0.8 0.02
Mar-89 -1.1 -0.84
Apr-89 -2.8 -1.45
May-89 -1.7 -2.03
Jun-89 -0.9 -1.67
Jul-89 -4.5 -2.00
Aug-89 -1.4 -1.91
Sep-89 -1.1 -1.72
Oct-89 -2 -1.45
Nov-89 -0.4 -0.70
Dec-89 -0.8 -0.82
Jan-90 -0.1 -0.48
Feb-90 1 -0.33
Mar-90 1.6 0.01
Apr-90 0.2 0.51
May-90 1.6 0.90
Jun-90 0.7 1.27
Jul-90 0.8 0.77
Aug-90 3.6 0.79
Sep-90 1 0.23
Oct-90 2.5 0.92
Nov-90 1.9 -1.13
Dec-90 -2.1 -1.41
Jan-91 -0.6 -1.40
Feb-91 -3.5 -1.77
Mar-91 -5.9 -2.50
Apr-91 -2.6 -1.91
May-91 -1.5 -1.11
Jun-91 -5 -0.13
Jul-91 0 1.62
Aug-91 0.7 1.22
Sep-91 0.9 0.71
Oct-91 2.2 1.16
Nov-91 -1.1 -0.08
Dec-91 -2.1 0.14
Jan-92 -0.1 -0.57
Feb-92 0.2 -1.41
Mar-92 -1.3 -0.35
Apr-92 -1.4 0.03
May-92 -2 -0.58
Jun-92 -0.7 -0.75
Jul-92 2.9 -0.62
Aug-92 -0.9 -0.93
Sep-92 0.4 -0.50
Oct-92 -0.5 -0.87
Nov-92 -2.5 -1.77
Dec-92 -1.4 -1.47
Jan-93 -2 -2.24
Feb-93 -3.1 -2.20
Mar-93 -2.2 -2.51
Apr-93 -1.4 -2.41
May-93 -3.8 -2.30
Jun-93 -2.8 -2.38
Jul-93 -3.2 -2.01
Aug-93 -3.9 -1.61
Sep-93 -0.5 -1.11
Oct-93 -1.3 -1.67
Nov-93 0 -1.48
Dec-93 -0.9 -0.49
Jan-94 -4.2 -1.73
Feb-94 -3.3 -2.52
Mar-94 2 -0.55
Apr-94 -7.3 -0.66
May-94 -0.6 -0.32
Jun-94 1.1 0.03
Jul-94 -0.9 1.12
Aug-94 0.9 1.43
Sep-94 3.8 3.58
Oct-94 0.9 4.12
Nov-94 6 4.12
Dec-94 10.4 4.81
Jan-95 6.8 4.35
Feb-95 5.5 3.44
Mar-95 4.8 2.79
Apr-95 -1.6 0.71
May-95 2.7 0.57
Jun-95 1.1 0.86
Jul-95 -3.1 -0.30
Aug-95 2.1 -0.73
Sep-95 1 -0.52
Oct-95 -1.6 -0.43
Nov-95 -0.1 -0.58
Dec-95 -3.9 -1.28
Jan-96 -3 -1.64
Feb-96 -0.2 -1.26
Mar-96 -1.5 -1.04
Apr-96 -2.2 -1.03
May-96 0.4 -0.38
Jun-96 -3.8 -0.21
Jul-96 -1.6 -0.34
Aug-96 -1.4 -0.49
Sep-96 -2.3 -0.09
Oct-96 0.4 0.30
Nov-96 -1.3 -0.64
Dec-96 -1.5 0.61
Jan-97 1.2 0.54
Feb-97 0.5 0.27
Mar-97 -0.5 0.99
Apr-97 0.8 0.32
May-97 1 0.90
Jun-97 -1 1.25
Jul-97 1.4 0.91
Aug-97 0 1.53
Sep-97 3.8 0.89
Oct-97 4 2.60
Nov-97 -0.4 1.29
Dec-97 2.9 2.52
Jan-98 1.6 1.33
Feb-98 1.2 1.26
Mar-98 2 1.83
Apr-98 2 -1.92
May-98 0.5 -1.28
Jun-98 1.1 -1.60
Jul-98 0.5 -1.63
Aug-98 -3.1 -1.12
Sep-98 -1.5 -2.28
Oct-98 -0.3 -2.08
Nov-98 -1.4 -1.60
Dec-98 -0.5 22.11
Jan-99 -2.7 23.48
Feb-99 -0.9 21.91
Mar-99 3.8 23.12
Apr-99 0.5 24.28
May-99 -0.9 0.37
Jun-99 0.6 0.75
Jul-99 0 1.00
Aug-99 0.7 1.51
Sep-99 3.3 2.57
Oct-99 2.6 2.23
Nov-99 6.3 3.18
Dec-99 4.6 3.96
Jan-00 2.3 2.38
Feb-00 6.3 2.45
Mar-00 4.4 3.58
Apr-00 -2.3 1.53
May-00 5.3 1.81
Jun-00 3.2 2.22
Jul-00 -0.4 1.26
Aug-00 4.3 2.07
Sep-00 0.8 1.12
Oct-00 1.8 0.73
Nov-00 3.5 1.63
Dec-00 -3 0.28
Jan-01 3.3 1.01
Feb-01 -1.1 0.67
Mar-01 2.4 1.37
Apr-01 -0.4 0.18
May-01 4.9 1.61
Jun-01 -0.7 -0.63
Jul-01 0.3 -3.50
Aug-01 3.8 -1.57
Sep-01 -14.9 -4.54
Oct-01 -7.8 -5.11
Nov-01 -6.6 -5.09
Dec-01 -8.2 -5.73
Jan-02 -2.5 -3.86
Feb-02 -6.4  
Mar-02 -5.1  
Apr-02 -1.9  

Note: Shaded areas represent the NBER-defined growth slowdown in the U.S. economy (the trough for the latest growth slowdown has not been determined).