Table 2 Lead and Lag Analysis Between Transportation and the Economy

Table 2
Lead and Lag Analysis Between Transportation and the Economy

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NBER-defined chronologies of economy1 Business cycle of Transportation Output Index
Recessions Growth cycle Chronology Lead and lag of transportation vs. Recessions of economy Lead and lag of transportation vs. Growth cycle of economy
P T P T P T P T P T
- Jul-80 - Jul-80 - Jul-80 - 0 - 0
Jul-81 Nov-82 Jul-81 Dec-82 Feb-81 Oct-82 -5 -1 -5 -2
- - Sep-84 Jan-87 Aug-84 Sep-85 - - -1 -16
Jul-90 Mar-91 Jan-89 Dec-91 Feb-88 Mar-91 -29 0 -11 -9
- - Jan-95 Jan-96 Dec-94 Jul-95 - - -1 -6
Mar-01 Nov-01 Jun-00 - Nov-99 Sep-01 -16 -2 -7 -
          Mean -17 -1 -5 -7
          Median -16 -0.5 -5 -6

1 Business cycle chronologies are taken from http://www.nber.org/; growth cycle chronologies are taken from Zarnowitz and Ozyildirim (2002).

Key: P = peak; T = trough.