Table 2 Lead and Lag Analysis Between Transportation and the Economy
Table 2
Lead and Lag Analysis Between Transportation and the Economy
| NBER-defined chronologies of economy1 | Business cycle of Transportation Output Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recessions | Growth cycle | Chronology | Lead and lag of transportation vs. Recessions of economy | Lead and lag of transportation vs. Growth cycle of economy | |||||
| P | T | P | T | P | T | P | T | P | T |
| - | Jul-80 | - | Jul-80 | - | Jul-80 | - | 0 | - | 0 |
| Jul-81 | Nov-82 | Jul-81 | Dec-82 | Feb-81 | Oct-82 | -5 | -1 | -5 | -2 |
| - | - | Sep-84 | Jan-87 | Aug-84 | Sep-85 | - | - | -1 | -16 |
| Jul-90 | Mar-91 | Jan-89 | Dec-91 | Feb-88 | Mar-91 | -29 | 0 | -11 | -9 |
| - | - | Jan-95 | Jan-96 | Dec-94 | Jul-95 | - | - | -1 | -6 |
| Mar-01 | Nov-01 | Jun-00 | - | Nov-99 | Sep-01 | -16 | -2 | -7 | - |
| Mean | -17 | -1 | -5 | -7 | |||||
| Median | -16 | -0.5 | -5 | -6 | |||||
1 Business cycle chronologies are taken from http://www.nber.org/; growth cycle chronologies are taken from Zarnowitz and Ozyildirim (2002).