Table 2: Borderplex Bridge and Air Equation Estimation Results

Table 2: Borderplex Bridge and Air Equation Estimation Results

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EQUATIONS 1-2 are Air Transportation Identities

Equation 1: Air Passengers, Total Departures (thousands)

ELAPET = ELAPED + ELAPEI

Equation 2: Air Passengers, Total Arrivals (thousands)

ELAPDT = ELAPDD + ELAPDI

EQUATIONS 3-12 are Air Transportation Stochastic Equations

Equation 3: U.S. Air Travel Price Index, 1982-1984 = 100

AIRP = f(AIRP.1, PDCGDP)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 39 periods from 1964-2002

airp = 0.84754 * airp[-1] + 44.5066 * pdcgdp - 8.24792
          (17.0174)                   (3.72458)                   (2.51809)

Sum Sq 946.932 Std Err 5.1287 LHS Mean 105.877  
R Sq 0.9955 R Bar Sq 0.9952 F 2, 36 3947.49  
DW(1) 1.8062 DW(2) 2.5556 H 0.5858  

Equation 4: Air Passengers, Domestic Departures (thousands)

ELAPED = f(ELAPED.1, ELYWSD/AIRP, DV 911)

Nonlinear Least Squares, annual data for 22 periods from 1981-2002

Elaped = 0.82612 * elaped[-1] + 21.0483 * elywsd/airp - 150.688 * dv911 - 324.617
                (7.04844)                         (1.03279)                          (1.98167)                 (0.60654)

Sum Sq 128582 Std Err 86.9694 LHS Mean 1482.8  
R Sq 0.9322 R Bar Sq 0.9163 F 4, 17 58.4537  
DW(1) 2.2001 DW(2) 2.0029 H -0.6211  
AR_0 = 0.27511 * AR_1
             (1.06312)
       

Equation 5: Air Passengers, International Departures (thousands)

ELAPEI = f(ELAPEI.1, MXREX, PDCCESTRNPI/PDCGDP)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980-2002

elapei = 0.49491 * elapei [-1] - 0.19892 * mxrex -6.81160 * dv911 - 13.6134 * pdccestrnpi/pdcgdp + 41.6922
              (3.23979)                         (2.54669)               (1.48202)                (1.15825)                                         (2.61212)

Sum Sq 445.716 Std Err 4.9761 LHS Mean 11.9377  
R Sq 0.6691 R Bar Sq 0.5956 F 4, 18 9.1001  
DW(1) 1.2223 DW(2) 1.8125 H 0.5157  

Equation 6: Air Passengers, Domestic Arrivals (thousands)

ELAPDD = f(ELAPDD.1, CESTRNPI/PDCCESTRNPI, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980-2002

elapdd = 0.91955 * elapdd[-1] + 0.88772 * cestrnpi/pdccestrnpi - 121.591 * dv911 + 115.683
                (9.43567)                        (0.16531)                                           (1.57280)                (1.13256)

Sum Sq 158515 Std Err 91.3394 LHS Mean 1422.51  
R Sq 0.9206 R Bar Sq 0.908 F 3, 19 73.3817  
DW(1) 1.7249 DW(2) 1.6678 H 0.4568  

Equation 7: Air Passengers, International Arrivals (thousands)

ELAPDI = f(ELAPDI.1, MXREX, PDCCESTRNPI/PDCGDP)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980-2002

elapdi = 0.77877 * elapdi[-1] - 0.11833 * mxrex + 0.21759 * pdccestrnpi/pdcgdp + 14.4671
              (6.00170)                        (1.89065)                (0.01736)                                         (1.09570)

Sum Sq 493.062 Std Err 5.0942 LHS Mean 15.3853  
R Sq 0.8035 R Bar Sq 0.7725 F 3, 19 25.8982  
DW(1) 1.6222 DW(2) 1.7017 H -0.4845  

Equation 8: Air Freight, Outbound (thousand tons)

ELAFET = f(ELAFET.1, GDP96, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975-2002

elafet = 0.34113 * elafet[-1] + 0.00576 * gdp96 - 6.9705 * dv911 - 25.2374
             (2.02867)                      (4.38056)                (3.70933)               (4.19841)

Sum Sq 89.6066 Std Err 2.1717 LHS Mean 20.8295  
R Sq 0.9687 R Bar Sq 0.9637 F 3, 19 195.943  
DW(1) 1.4562 DW(2) 1.8892 H 2.0793  

Equation 9: Air Freight, Inbound (thousand tons)

ELAFDT = f(ELAFDT.1, ELYLP/PDCCESTRNPI, ELGMP96, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980-2002

elafdt = 0.41934 * elafdt[-1] + 0.00034 * elylp/pdccestrnpi + 5.25436 * elgmp96 - 5.90542 * dv911 - 43.0747
             (4.22055)                      (0.30584)                                    (3.24465)                      (3.66921)                 (4.5494)

Sum Sq 62.8499 Std Err 1.9073 LHS Mean 26.7198  
R Sq 0.99 R Bar Sq 0.9871 F 5, 17 337.956  
DW(1) 1.8939 DW(2) 2.3568 H 0.1479  
  MA_0 = - 0.93588 * MA_1
                (3.38261)
       

Equation 10: Air Mail Price Index (1996 = 100)

MAILP = f(MAILP.1, PDCGDP)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 39 periods from 1964-2002

mailp = 0.06430 * mailp[-1] + 32.1832 * pdcgdp - 3.01038
             (0.43204)                       (6.34350)                  (4.71268)

Sum Sq 21.9588 Std Err 0.781 LHS Mean 19.2099  
R Sq 0.9946 R Bar Sq 0.9943 F 2, 36 3299.64  
DW(1) 1.9237 DW(2) 2.1208 H 0.4443  

Equation 11: Air Mail, Outbound (thousand tons)

ELAME = f(ELAME.1, ELGMP96, MAILP/PDCGDP, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975-2002

elame = 0.65473 * elame[-1] + 0.04247 * elgmp96 - 0.01800 * mailp/pdcgdp - 1.14069 * dv911 + 0.75765
               (3.94033)                       (1.44456)                      (0.54124)                               (6.30882)                (0.92028)

Sum Sq 1.0553 Std Err 0.2142 LHS Mean 1.7473  
R Sq 0.7345 R Bar Sq 0.6883 F 4, 23 15.9039  
DW(1) 1.943 DW(2) 2.1283 H 0.1106  

Equation 12: Airmail, Inbound (thousand tons)

ELAMD = f(ELAMD.1, ELGMP96, MAILP/PDCGDP, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975-2002

elamd = 0.83160 * elamd[-1] + 0.06354 * elgmp96 + 0.01042 * mailp/pdcgdp - 1.44147 * dv911 - 0.40496
               (6.21740)                       (0.95369)                       (0.14702)                              (3.70439)                (0.22777)

Sum Sq 4.8725 Std Err 0.4603 LHS Mean 2.8202  
R Sq 0.7252 R Bar Sq 0.6774 F 4, 23 15.1713  
DW(1) 1.6837 DW(2) 1.8787 H 1.0486  

EQUATIONS 13-15 are International Bridge Identities

Equation 13: International Bridges, Total Cargo Vehicles (millions)

ELBTT = ELBAT + ELBYT

Equation 14: International Bridges, Total Light Vehicles (millions)

ELBTC = ELBAC + ELBDC + ELBYC + ELBPC

Equation 15: International Bridges, Total Pedestrians (millions)

ELBTW = ELBAW + ELBYW + ELBPW

EQUATIONS 16-23 are International Bridge Stochastic Equations

Equation 16: Bridge of the Americas, Cargo Vehicles (millions)

ELBAT = f(ELBAT.1, CJMQM, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977-2002

elbat = 0.72275 * elbat[-1] + 0.00042 * cjmqm - 0.01454 * dv911 + 0.02716
            (5.27650)                     (1.53320)                  (0.31027)                (1.06493)

Sum Sq 0.0733 Std Err 0.0577 LHS Mean 0.2438  
R Sq 0.8138 R Bar Sq 0.7885 F 3, 22 32.0614  
DW(1) 1.7214 DW(2) 2.0725 H 0.9385  

Equation 17: Bridge of the Americas, Light Vehicles (millions)

ELBAC = f(MXREX, ELPPOP.1 + CJPOP.1, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977-2002

elbac = -0.01704 * mxrex + 0.00165 * elppop[-1] + cjpop[-1] - 2.44885 * dv911 + 6.78609
               (2.12403)                 (3.23975)                                             (4.05759)                 (6.36514)

Sum Sq 10.9309 Std Err 0.7049 LHS Mean 7.1934  
R Sq 0.4886 R Bar Sq 0.4189 F 3, 22 7.0068  
DW(1) 1.6757 DW(2) 1.9535      

Equation 18: Bridge of the Americas, Pedestrians (millions)

ELBAW = f(ELBAW.1, CJMQM, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977-2002

elbaw = 0.36724 * elbaw[-1] + 0.00047 * cjmqm + 0.33277 * dv911 + 0.30128
              (2.33034)                      (1.32460)                  (3.45088)                 (2.99741)

Sum Sq 0.3336 Std Err 0.1179 LHS Mean 0.5942  
R Sq 0.5671 R Bar Sq 0.513 F 3, 24 10.4817  
DW(1) 1.5787 DW(2) 1.6586 H 0.9508  

Equation 19: Paso del Norte Bridge, Light Vehicles (millions)

ELBPC = f(ELBPC.1, ELPPOP.1+CJPOP.1, MXREX, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002

elbpc = 0.50442 * elbpc[-1] + 0.00001 * elppop[-1] + cjpop[-1] + 0.00141 * mxrex - 0.48639 * dv911 + 2.14509
             (3.00439)                      (0.03346)                                              (0.30880)                (1.33118)                (2.55494)

Sum Sq 5.2607 Std Err 0.4335 LHS Mean 4.5782  
R Sq 0.2961 R Bar Sq 0.1955 F 4, 28 2.9441  
DW(1) 1.7126 DW(2) 2.4887 H 2.6796  

Equation 20: Paso del Norte Bridge, Pedestrians (millions)

ELBPW = f(ELBPW.1, CJMQM, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002

elbpw = 0.59209 * elbpw[-1] + 0.00113 * cjmqm + 1.35238 * dv911 + 1.79973
              (4.29580)                       (0.47648)                  (2.15409)                 (2.25472)

Sum Sq 13.9889 Std Err 0.7635 LHS Mean 4.9874  
R Sq 0.5408 R Bar Sq 0.4834 F 3, 24 9.4228  
DW(1) 1.5463 DW(2) 1.9588 H 1.4861  

Equation 21: Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Cargo Vehicles (millions)

ELBYT = f(ELBYT.1, CJMQM, MXREX, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002

elbyt = 0.89245 * elbyt[-1] + 0.00033 * cjmqm - 0.00046 * mxrex - 0.04697 * dv911 + 0.03436
           (10.9453)                     (2.39713)                  (1.60623)                (2.17479)                (1.33619)

Sum Sq 0.018 Std Err 0.0253 LHS Mean 0.1041  
R Sq 0.9691 R Bar Sq 0.9646 F 4, 28 219.208  
DW(1) 1.6956 DW(2) 2.4523 H 0.9429  

Equation 22: Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Light Vehicles (millions)

ELBYC = f(ELBYC.1, CJPOP.1, DV911)

Nonlinear Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002

elbyc = 0.73020 * elbyc[-1] + 0.00109 * cjppop[-1] - 0.27012 * dv911 + 0.17834
             (4.67118)                     (2.31758)                        (1.59233)                 (1.39335)

Sum Sq 0.7507 Std Err 0.1769 LHS Mean 2.2453  
R Sq 0.9585 R Bar Sq 0.9533 F 3, 24 184.796  
DW(1) 1.5615 DW(2) 2.0065 H 1.9514  
MA_0 = 0.20841 * MA_1
               (0.75853)
         

Equation 23: Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Pedestrians (millions)

ELBYW = f(ELBYW.1, MXREX, CJMQM, DV911)

Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002

elbyw = 0.82936 * elbyw[-1] + 0.00143 * mxrex + 0.00020 * cjmqm + 0.25096 * dv911 - 0.11255
              (7.42629)                      (2.26824)                (0.83996)                  (5.25357)                (1.92377)

Sum Sq 0.0931 Std Err 0.0577 LHS Mean 0.2314  
R Sq 0.9226 R Bar Sq 0.9116 F 4, 28 83.464  
DW(1) 2.07 DW(2) 1.9894 H -1.0059