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Table 4: Air Series Predictive Accuracy

Table 4: Air Series Predictive Accuracy

Sample period: 1998-2003

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Series RMSE U-statistic U-bias U-variance U-covariance
El Paso International Airport Domestic Passenger Arrivals
ELAPDD1 125.9 0.004 0.51 0.01 0.48
ELAPDD2 99.7 0.003 0.33 0.02 0.65
El Paso International Airport International Passenger Arrivals
ELAPDI1 6.947 0.276 0.74 0.02 0.24
ELAPDI2 4.867 0.203 0.75 0.03 0.22
El Paso International Airport Domestic Passenger Departures
ELAPED1 140.9 0.004 0.38 0.01 0.62
ELAPED2 118.1 0.004 0.26 0.11 0.63
El Paso International Airport International Passenger Departures
ELAPEI1 5.796 0.255 0.69 0.00 0.31
ELAPEI2 4.657 0.202 0.68 0.03 0.29
El Paso International Airport Inbound Freight
ELAFDT1 8.622 0.055 0.02 0.10 0.88
ELAFDT2 9.838 0.063 0.07 0.09 0.84
El Paso International Airport Outbound Freight
ELAFET1 4.889 0.046 0.05 0.01 0.94
ELAFET2 5.399 0.052 0.03 0.02 0.95
El Paso International Airport Inbound U.S. Mail
ELAMD1 1.231 0.507 0.23 0.04 0.74
ELAMD2 1.361 0.552 0.28 0.15 0.57
El Paso International Airport Outbound U.S. Mail
ELAME1 0.934 0.957 0.25 0.06 0.69
ELAME2 1.035 0.978 0.24 0.08 0.68

1 Previously published borderplex structural model forecast.

2 Random walk forecast calculated as last available historical observation.