Table 5: Estimated Causal Models for TC and JTC
Table 5: Estimated Causal Models for TC and JTC
In logs
| ∇12TC | ∇∇12JTC | |
|---|---|---|
| Constant | 0.0544* | -0.0368* |
| (0.0073) | (0.0076) | |
| DAYS | 0.0018 | 0.0026* |
| (0.0024) | (0.0010) | |
| EASTER | -0.0535* | -0.0710* |
| (0.0106) | (0.0041) | |
| FEB93 | 0.0579* | |
| (0.0136) | ||
| APR93 | -0.0870* | |
| (0.0137) | ||
| MAR94 | 0.0368* | |
| (0.0165) | ||
| JUL95 | 0.0492* | |
| (0.0085) | ||
| ΔPTCi | 0.1576 | -0.0134 |
| (0.3032) | (0.1387) | |
| MRLi | 0.2517*B4 - 0.4175*B5 | 0.1800*B4 - 0.2087*B5 |
| (0.1344) (0.1665) | (0.0861) (0.0977) | |
| (1 + 0.9897*B) | ||
| (0.0672) | ||
| θ1 | 0.4557* | |
| (0.1316) | ||
| θ2 | -0.5399* | 0.4671* |
| (0.0997) | (0.1641) | |
| θ3 | -0.5261* | |
| (0.1628) | ||
| Θ12 | -0.1285 | -0.4048* |
| (0.0939) | (0.0949) | |
| φ1 | 0.3240* | 0.9753* |
| (0.1042) | (0.1044) | |
| φ2 | -0.6448* | |
| (0.1997) | ||
| φ3 | 0.2694* | 0.3357* |
| (0.0964) | (0.1314) | |
| φ4 | -0.3400* | |
| (0.0942) | ||
 |
0.0256 | 0.03035 |
| R2 | 0.7 | 0.86 |
| LBQ (12, 24, 36) | 11.2, 22.8, 45.6 | 10.6, 14.6, 21.9 |
| Jarque-Bera (p-value) | 2.75 (0.252) | 2.69 (0.260) |
| White's heterosk (p-value) | 6.68 (0.946) | 5.86 (0.97) |
Notes: Standard errors in parenthesis. * represents significant at 5%; ∇ = (1 - B) and ∇12 = (1 - B12): regular and seasonal differences; B: lag operator; ΔPTCi (i = TC, JTC): rates of growth of deflated price for TC tickets; MRL: Metro route length; LBQ: Ljung-Box Q statistics; 
= residual standard error.