Table 8: Annual Percentage Errors (APE), Forecasted Annual Growth Rates (FGR), Observed Annual Growth Rates (OGR) of h = 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro, Bus Tickets, and Travel Cards for Alternative Models
Table 8: Annual Percentage Errors (APE), Forecasted Annual Growth Rates (FGR), Observed Annual Growth Rates (OGR) of h = 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-Steps-Ahead Forecasts for Metro, Bus Tickets, and Travel Cards for Alternative Models
Forecasting Period: 2000-2002
| SMT | 10MT | SBT | 10BT | TC | JTC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Causal | DHR | Causal | DHR | Causal | DHR | Causal | DHR | Causal | DHR | Causal | DHR | |
| 2000, h = 1 | ||||||||||||
| APE | -0.87 | -0.17 | 0.3 | 1.82 | -2.77 | -0.30 | -1.32 | -1.63 | -0.04 | -1.43 | -0.43 | 2.28 |
| FGR | 12.22 | 13.01 | 5.96 | 7.57 | 0.87 | 3.44 | -3.75 | -1.05 | 9.21 | 7.69 | -4.06 | -1.45 |
| OGR | 13.2 | 5.64 | 3.75 | -2.47 | 9.26 | -3.65 | ||||||
| 2001, h = 1 | ||||||||||||
| APE | 0.97 | 1.23 | 1.15 | 1.3 | 0.25 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.4 | 0.15 | 3.36 | -0.22 | 2.11 |
| FGR | 5.67 | 5.94 | 0.9 | 1.06 | -1.61 | -0.99 | -3.12 | -2.97 | 6.2 | 9.61 | -3.10 | -0.83 |
| OGR | 4.65 | -0.24 | -1.86 | -3.36 | 6.04 | -2.88 | ||||||
| 2002, h = 1 | ||||||||||||
| APE | 0.84 | -0.07 | -0.78 | -3.36 | 1.86 | 1.28 | -0.80 | -1.70 | 0.56 | 0.04 | -1.17 | 0.42 |
| FGR | -4.85 | -5.71 | 6.15 | 3.39 | -14.36 | -14.84 | -1.09 | -1.98 | 5.01 | 4.47 | -3.29 | -1.73 |
| OGR | -5.64 | 6.98 | -15.90 | -0.29 | 4.43 | -2.15 | ||||||
| 2001, h = 6 | ||||||||||||
| APE | 2.65 | 3 | 5.09 | 2.27 | -0.19 | 4.25 | -0.22 | 1.09 | 3.61 | 4.33 | -0.62 | 2.96 |
| FGR | 7.42 | 7.79 | 4.84 | 2.02 | -2.05 | 2.32 | -3.57 | -2.30 | 9.87 | 10.63 | -3.48 | 0 |
| OGR | 4.65 | -0.24 | -1.86 | -3.36 | 6.04 | -2.88 | ||||||
| 2002, h = 6 | ||||||||||||
| APE | 3.55 | 1.86 | -5.76 | -5.56 | 7.37 | 4.73 | -1.51 | -2.28 | 1.05 | 2.36 | -1.61 | 1.42 |
| FGR | -2.30 | -3.89 | 0.82 | 1.03 | -9.72 | -11.94 | -1.79 | -2.56 | 5.52 | 6.89 | -3.72 | -0.76 |
| OGR | -5.64 | 6.98 | -15.90 | -0.29 | 4.43 | -2.15 | ||||||
| 2001, h = 12 | ||||||||||||
| APE | 3.52 | 7.57 | 10.46 | 7.2 | -4.38 | 7.1 | -0.62 | 0.42 | 2.01 | 2.17 | -0.07 | 2.48 |
| FGR | 8.33 | 12.57 | 10.19 | 2.02 | -6.16 | 2.32 | -3.96 | -2.95 | 8.17 | 8.35 | -2.95 | -0.47 |
| OGR | 4.65 | -0.24 | -1.86 | -3.36 | 6.04 | -2.88 | ||||||
| 2002, h = 12 | ||||||||||||
| APE | 9.91 | 9.69 | -10.13 | -6.13 | 17.79 | 15.62 | -2.14 | -2.80 | 1.19 | 4.62 | 2.12 | 1.35 |
| FGR | 3.71 | 3.5 | -3.86 | 0.42 | -0.96 | -2.79 | -2.42 | -3.08 | 5.64 | 9.26 | -0.07 | -0.83 |
| OGR | -5.64 | 6.98 | -15.90 | -0.29 | 4.43 | -2.15 | ||||||
| 2002, h = 24 | ||||||||||||
| APE | 16.94 | 28.68 | 10.66 | 7 | 10.41 | 34 | -2.48 | -2.20 | 6.17 | 6.39 | -1.17 | 3.98 |
| FGR | 10.34 | 21.42 | 18.38 | 14.47 | -7.17 | 12.67 | -2.76 | -2.48 | 17.17 | 11.11 | -3.29 | 1.75 |
| OGR | -5.64 | 6.98 | -15.90 | -0.29 | 4.43 | -2.15 | ||||||