Figure 3: Forecasts of Fatalities, Serious Casualties, and Slight Casualties

Figure 3: Forecasts of Fatalities, Serious Casualties, and Slight Casualties

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Year Number of fatalities Number of serious casualties Slight casualty rates per 100 million vehicle-kilometers
Fatalities Fitted Fatalities LPL Fatalities UPL Fatalities Serious Fitted Serious LPL Serious UPL Serious Slight rate Fitted Slight LPL Slight UPL Slight
1970 7499 7857.52 6753.56 9141.94 93000 99034.81 81154.45 120854.7 127.8 119.61 101.44 141.03
1971 7699 7406.36 6739.97 8138.62 91000 91187.58 83587.12 99479.13 117.13 123.17 114.88 132.06
1972 7763 7476.66 6805.68 8213.8 91000 89097.42 81681.37 97186.79 115.49 113.98 106.32 122.2
1973 7406 7455 6787.53 8188.09 89000 88642.13 81273.06 96679.35 107.98 112.17 104.63 120.24
1974 6883 7156.98 6517.59 7859.1 82000 86575.55 79386.14 94416.05 100.85 105.56 98.48 113.15
1975 6366 6748.95 6147.19 7409.61 77000 80465.13 73789.49 87744.71 102.12 99.26 92.6 106.39
1976 6570 6343.09 5778.52 6962.82 80000 75976.31 69678.16 82843.74 102.42 99.88 93.19 107.05
1977 6614 6426.24 5855.15 7053.02 82000 78027.32 71563.44 85075.03 102.77 99.71 93.03 106.86
1978 6831 6400.58 5832.55 7023.94 83000 79237.89 72677.14 86390.9 99.24 99.57 92.91 106.71
1979 6352 6487.77 5912.65 7118.82 80000 79631.04 73040.2 86816.6 95.38 96.28 89.84 103.18
1980 6010 6120.12 5578.1 6714.82 79000 76837.26 70479.12 83768.98 87.73 92.74 86.54 99.39
1981 5846 5842.32 5325.26 6409.57 78000 75649.74 69390.4 82473.7 85.46 86.08 80.32 92.25
1982 5934 5683.79 5181.02 6235.35 80000 74470.65 68308.5 81188.7 85.57 83.85 78.24 89.86
1983 5445 5693.23 5189.77 6245.53 71000 75665.35 69403.05 82492.7 79.25 83.59 78 89.58
1984 5599 5321.94 4851.34 5838.18 73000 68171.32 62527.28 74324.83 79.61 78.04 72.82 83.64
1985 5165 5378.23 4902.59 5900.02 71000 69406.79 63657.61 75675.21 76.27 78.01 72.79 83.61
1986 5382 5045.82 4599.42 5535.55 69000 67476.39 61883.53 73574.71 74.62 74.93 69.91 80.31
1987 5125 5145.71 4690.21 5645.45 64000 65556.42 60118.44 71486.28 67.98 73.26 68.35 78.53
1988 5052 4933.75 4496.67 5413.32 63000 61269.36 56182.29 66817.04 66.67 67.46 62.93 72.31
1989 5373 4843.85 4414.31 5315.2 63000 60163.77 55163.16 65617.7 66.26 66.08 61.64 70.84
1990 5217 5009.37 4564.61 5497.47 60000 59856.34 54875.25 65289.55 66.11 65.47 61.06 70.19
1991 4568 4867.46 4434.68 5342.47 52000 57184.4 52419.25 62382.73 61.15 65.06 60.68 69.76
1992 4229 4406.42 4014 4837.21 49000 50513.77 46298.21 55113.18 61.63 60.69 56.59 65.08
1993 3814 4144.2 3774.45 4550.17 45000 47834.35 43835.9 52197.52 61.78 60.83 56.72 65.24
1994 3650 3828.36 3486.1 4204.23 47000 44338.69 40625.91 48390.79 62.21 60.7 56.59 65.1
1995 3621 3683.2 3353.18 4045.7 46000 45735.25 41898.25 49923.63 60.14 60.79 56.67 65.21
1996 3598 3631.88 3305.67 3990.29 44000 44695.61 40938.21 48797.86 61.12 58.84 54.84 63.13
1997 3599 3585.22 3262.35 3940.05 43000 42854.65 39244.23 46797.22 61.89 59.4 55.35 63.74
1998 3421 3555.31 3234.23 3908.27 41000 41828.9 38296.82 45686.74 60.56 59.78 55.7 64.15
1999 3423 3404.68 3096.27 3743.8 39000 40000.31 36614.46 43699.25 59.02 58.44 54.45 62.74
2000 3409 3376.98 3070.11 3714.52 38000 38176 34936.35 41716.06 59.24 56.96 53.05 61.15
2001 3450 3338.78 3034.36 3673.75 37000 37169.89 34007.21 40626.71 57.11 56.89 52.98 61.09
2002 3431 3337.5 3032.11 3673.64 36000 36169.48 33083.33 39543.51 53.67 54.94 51.15 59.01
2003 . 3296.53 2993.77 3629.91 . 35174.62 32164.63 38466.29 . 51.92 48.33 55.78
2004 . 3180.17 2813.19 3595.01 . 34326.86 30393.99 38768.63 . 50.29 45.6 55.46
2005 . 3076.41 2681.65 3529.29 . 33466.08 28981.63 38644.42 . 48.75 43.4 54.75
2006 . 2981.69 2574.21 3453.67 . 32599.79 27754.62 38290.8 . 47.29 41.51 53.87
2007 . 2893.63 2480.88 3375.05 . 31734.03 26645.86 37793.83 . 45.9 39.83 52.9
2008 . 2810.67 2396.68 3296.16 . 30873.56 25621.64 37202.02 . 44.58 38.3 51.89
2009 . 2731.74 2318.83 3218.17 . 30022.11 24662.63 36546.26 . 43.32 36.9 50.85
2010 . 2656.13 2245.69 3141.6 . 29182.58 23756.75 35847.63 . 42.11 35.59 49.82