Table 4 - Forecasts of Numbers of Passengers and Aircraft Movements

Table 4 - Forecasts of Numbers of Passengers and Aircraft Movements

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A. PASSENGERS

(millions)

Airport Year 2003 2004 2005 2006
GVA (1953-2002) Forecast 7.86 8.05 8.29 8.19
Observed 8.09 8.59    
RMSE 0.43 0.69 1.02 1.33
Error −2.84% −6.29%    
ZRH (1953-2003) Forecast in sample 16.41 16.55 16.59
Observed 17.02 17.25    
RMSE in sample 1.62 2.41 3.27
Error in sample −4.87%    
BSL (1953-2002) Forecast 2.85 2.84 3.07 3.49
Observed 2.48 2.59    
RMSE 0.23 0.44 0.70 0.10
Error 14.92% 9.65%    

B. AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS

(hundreds of thousands)

Airport Year 2003 2004 2005 2006
GVA (1953-2002) Forecast 1.64 1.66 1.67 1.69
Observed 1.63 1.67    
RMSE 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.17
Error 0.61% −0.60%    
ZRH (1953-2003) Forecast in sample 2.78 2.95 3.16
Observed 2.69 2.67    
RMSE in sample 0.20 0.29 0.37
Error in sample 4.12%    
BSL (1953-2002) Forecast 1.01 0.97 0.99 1.04
Observed 1.00 0.78    
RMSE 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.30
Error 1.00% 24.36%    

Key: RMSE = root mean squared error.