Table 2 Overview of the Significant Explanatory and Correction Variables for Each Dependent Variable
Table 2 Overview of the Significant Explanatory and Correction Variables for Each Dependent Variable
| LNACCKSI | LNACCLI | LNPERKSI | LNPERLI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State space | Regression | State space | Regression | State space | Regression | State space | Regression | |
| Laws | ||||||||
| LAW0675 | −0.132 (−3.31) | −0.135 (−3.82) | −0.062 (−2.13) | −0.070 (−2.40) | −0.180 (−4.07) | −0.159 (−4.24) | −0.109 (−3.35) | −0.120 (−3.75) |
| LAW0192 | −0.062 (−1.87) | −0.063 (−2.17) | −0.071 (−2.50) | −0.087 (−2.09) | −0.076 (−2.11) | −0.064 (−2.03) | ||
| LAW1294 | −0.109 (−2.72) | −0.105 (−3.12) | −0.104 (−2.50) | −0.093 (−2.57) | ||||
| Weather conditions | ||||||||
| QUAPREC | 0.001 (4.12) | 0.001 (4.71) | 0.001 (3.85) | 0.001 (4.39) | ||||
| PDAYPREC | 0.001 (3.34) | 0.001 (2.60) | 0.001 (2.84) | 0.001 (4.04) | 0.001 (4.02) | 0.001 (2.69) | 0.001 (2.88) | |
| HRSSUN | 0.000 (3.92) | 0.001 (5.35) | 0.001 (4.99) | 0.001 (5.38) | 0.001 (4.48) | 0.001 (4.80) | 0.000 (3.82) | 0.000 (4.17) |
| PDAYFROST | −0.002 (−5.93) | −0.001 (−5.77) | −0.001 (−5.73) | −0.001 (−5.63) | −0.001 (−4.82) | −0.001 (−4.81) | −0.001 (−4.44) | −0.001 (−4.36) |
| PDAYTHUN | 0.001 (2.12) | 0.001 (2.06) | 0.001 (2.03) | 0.001 (1.93) | ||||
| Economic variables | ||||||||
| LNUNEMP | 0.117 (1.69) | |||||||
| LNCAR | −0.078 (−2.11) | |||||||
| Correction variables | ||||||||
| Jan-79 | −0.553 (−10.02) | −0.574 (−12.05) | −0.456 (−10.02) | −0.441 (−10.40) | −0.558 (−9.72) | −0.550 (−10.75) | −0.464 (−9.51) | −0.458 (−9.97) |
| Jan-84 | −0.450 (−9.28) | −0.449 (−9.87) | ||||||
| Jan-85 | −0.277 (−5.04) | −0.282 (−5.85) | −0.2711 (−6.00) | −0.2852 (−6.80) | −0.297(−5.22) | −0.289 (−5.62) | −0.276 (−5.67) | −0.294 (−6.46) |
| Feb-97 | −0.118 (−2.15) | −0.128 (−2.66) | −0.2033 (−4.50) | −0.2181 (−5.08) | −0.130 (−2.28) | −0.124 (−2.31) | −0.214 (−4.41) | −0.238 (−5.09) |
| Forecasting measure | ||||||||
| MSE(12) | 0.005 | 0.0046 | 0.0034 | 0.0052 | 0.007 | 0.0063 | 0.0036 | 0.0052 |
Note: Calculated ccording to the state space method and the regression model with ARMA errors, together with the coefficients and t−values (in parentheses) and the MSE values of the predictions for 2000.