## Table 1-1

## Table 1-1

Forecasts Past
and Future |
1975Actual |
1990Coleman forecast |
1990Actual |
2000Estimated |
2025Forecast^{13} |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Transportation Context | |||||

Population (millions)^{1} |
215 | 247 | 249 | 275 | 338 |

GNP (constant 1975 $, billions)^{2} |
$1,598 | $2,830 | $2,409 | $3,049 | $5,486 |

GNP Per Capita (1975 $)^{2} |
$7,417 | $11,457 | $9,675 | $11,087 | $16,240 |

GDP (constant 2000 $, billions)^{3} |
NA | NA | NA | $9,942 | $18,258 |

Passenger Transportation | |||||

Passenger-Miles (billions)^{4} |
2,560 | 3,850 | 3,946 | 5,036 | 8,438 |

Passenger-Miles Per Capita^{4} |
11,881 | 15,600 | 15,847 | 18,313 | 24,979 |

Licensed Drivers (millions)^{5} |
130 | 161 | 167 | 190 | 243 |

Vehicles (millions)^{6} |
138 | 170 | 193 | 219 | 262 |

Freight Transportation^{7} |
|||||

Total Ton-Miles (millions) | 2,285,000 | 4,394,706 | 3,196,000 | 3,959,432 | 5,098,888 |

Rail* | 754,252 | 1,845,777 | 1,033,969 | 1,416,446 | 1,484,802 |

Water (domestic ton-miles) | 565,984 | 1,010,782 | 833,544 | 763,540 | NA |

Water (domestic and foreign tons) | 1,695 | NA | 2,164 | 2,453 | 3,429 |

Truck (intercity | 454,000 | 703,153 | 735,000 | 1,130,132 | 2,121,837 |

Air | 3,470 | 8,789 | 9,064 | 15,904 | 33,925 |

Pipeline | 507,000 | 834,994 | 584,000 | 633,410 | 797,950 |

Safety^{8} |
|||||

Transportation fatalities | 49,214 | 45,500 | 47,248 | 42,600 | 40,300 |

Air Pollution^{9} |
|||||

CO (millions of tons) | 85.27 | 27.00 | 61.18 | 50.48 | 24.24 |

NOx ( millions of tons) | 9.45 | 8.82 | 8.51 | 8.66 | 7.98 |

Greenhouse gas emissions^{10} |
350.00 | NA | 420.00 | 500.00 | 600.00 |

Energy^{11} |
|||||

Btu^{12}
(trillions) |
16,998 | 16,700 | 24,070 | 25,200 | 36,600 |

* The FRA forecasts a two percent average annual growth rate for the 2000-2025 period. This translates into 2.4 trillion ton-miles in 2025.

^{1} Population projections
are taken from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Annual
Projections of the Total Resident Population as of July 1: Middle Series
Projections for 2000 and 2025.
^{2} Forecasts for GNP are
based on 1975 through 1999 data, using log linear (Holt) exponential
smoothing model, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
^{3} Forecasts for GDP are
based on 1929 through 1999 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing,
parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
^{4} Forecasts are based on
1990 through 1997 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters
optimized through SAS/ETS software.
^{5} Forecasts are based on
1949 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters
optimized through SAS/ETS software.
^{6} Forecasts for vehicles
are based on 1990 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential
smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
^{7} Forecasts for total ton-miles
are an aggregate of the individual forecasts by mode. Forecasts for
rail ton-miles are based on 1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend
exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
Forecasts for water ton-miles are based on two forecast models: log
damped trend exponential smoothing based on 1990 through 1997 data,
and log simple exponential smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data
in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights.
Forecasts for truck ton-miles are based on two forecast models: linear
trend based on 1990 through 1997 data, and double (Brown) exponential
smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the
two forecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts for air ton-miles
are based on two forecast models: linear trend based on 1990 through
1998 data, and damped trend exponential smoothing based on 1960 through
1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with
equal weights. Forecasts for pipeline ton-miles are based on 1990 through
1997 data using log linear trend. All forecast model parameters optimized
through SAS/ETS software.
^{8} Forecasts are based on
1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters
optimized through SAS/ETS software.
^{9} Forecasts for CO are based
on 1985 through 1997 data, using log linear trend parameters optimized
through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for NOx are based on 1985 through
1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parameters optimized
through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for greenhouse gas emissions are
based on expert opinion.
^{10} Millions of metric tons
of carbon equivalent, excluding bunker fuels.
^{11} Forecasts based on 1990
through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parameters
optimized through SAS/ETS software.
^{12} Btu: British thermal
unit.
^{13} The 2025 forecasts are
purely statistical. For sources of data used in these forecasts see
page 1-32.