Table 1-1

Table 1-1

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Forecasts Past and Future 1975
Actual
1990
Coleman
forecast
1990
Actual
2000
Estimated
2025
Forecast13
Transportation Context
Population (millions)1 215 247 249 275 338
GNP (constant 1975 $, billions)2 $1,598 $2,830 $2,409 $3,049 $5,486
GNP Per Capita (1975 $)2 $7,417 $11,457 $9,675 $11,087 $16,240
GDP (constant 2000 $, billions)3 NA NA NA $9,942 $18,258
Passenger Transportation
Passenger-Miles (billions)4 2,560 3,850 3,946 5,036 8,438
Passenger-Miles Per Capita4 11,881 15,600 15,847 18,313 24,979
Licensed Drivers (millions)5 130 161 167 190 243
Vehicles (millions)6 138 170 193 219 262
Freight Transportation7
Total Ton-Miles (millions) 2,285,000 4,394,706 3,196,000 3,959,432 5,098,888
Rail* 754,252 1,845,777 1,033,969 1,416,446 1,484,802
Water (domestic ton-miles) 565,984 1,010,782 833,544 763,540 NA
Water (domestic and foreign tons) 1,695 NA 2,164 2,453 3,429
Truck (intercity 454,000 703,153 735,000 1,130,132 2,121,837
Air 3,470 8,789 9,064 15,904 33,925
Pipeline 507,000 834,994 584,000 633,410 797,950
Safety8
Transportation fatalities 49,214 45,500 47,248 42,600 40,300
Air Pollution9
CO (millions of tons) 85.27 27.00 61.18 50.48 24.24
NOx ( millions of tons) 9.45 8.82 8.51 8.66 7.98
Greenhouse gas emissions10 350.00 NA 420.00 500.00 600.00
Energy11
Btu12 (trillions) 16,998 16,700 24,070 25,200 36,600

* The FRA forecasts a two percent average annual growth rate for the 2000-2025 period. This translates into 2.4 trillion ton-miles in 2025.

NA = not available.

1 Population projections are taken from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population as of July 1: Middle Series Projections for 2000 and 2025.
2 Forecasts for GNP are based on 1975 through 1999 data, using log linear (Holt) exponential smoothing model, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
3 Forecasts for GDP are based on 1929 through 1999 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
4 Forecasts are based on 1990 through 1997 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
5 Forecasts are based on 1949 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
6 Forecasts for vehicles are based on 1990 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
7 Forecasts for total ton-miles are an aggregate of the individual forecasts by mode. Forecasts for rail ton-miles are based on 1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for water ton-miles are based on two forecast models: log damped trend exponential smoothing based on 1990 through 1997 data, and log simple exponential smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts for truck ton-miles are based on two forecast models: linear trend based on 1990 through 1997 data, and double (Brown) exponential smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts for air ton-miles are based on two forecast models: linear trend based on 1990 through 1998 data, and damped trend exponential smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts for pipeline ton-miles are based on 1990 through 1997 data using log linear trend. All forecast model parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
8 Forecasts are based on 1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
9 Forecasts for CO are based on 1985 through 1997 data, using log linear trend parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for NOx are based on 1985 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for greenhouse gas emissions are based on expert opinion.
10 Millions of metric tons of carbon equivalent, excluding bunker fuels.
11 Forecasts based on 1990 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.
12 Btu: British thermal unit.
13 The 2025 forecasts are purely statistical. For sources of data used in these forecasts see page 1-32.