Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 1.6 Percent in March from February

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BTS 21-07
Dave Smallen
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Wednesday, May 9, 2007 - The Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 1.6 percent in March from its February level, rising after two months of decline, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).

The March increase was only the fourth increase in the past 12 months but it was the largest monthly increase since February 2004 (Table 2). The index is 1.0 percent below its peak in May 2006.

The index rose 0.8 percent in the first quarter, the fourth consecutive December-to-March increase (Table 3).

The March level of 111.0 for the combined freight and passenger index was 0.1 percent higher than the March 2006 level, following a decline from March 2005 to March 2006 (Table 4). The March 2007 level was 11.6 percent higher than the March level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5).

TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit.

The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental. The index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. For additional historical data prior to 2004, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. Release of the April index is scheduled for June 13.

Transportation Services Index for Freight

The TSI for freight rose 1.3 percent in March from the February level, rising after two monthly declines. The rise was the largest monthly increase since May 2006 (Table 6). The March freight index of 109.1 was down 1.4 percent from its March 2006 level (Table 7), and down 3.3 percent from its peak of 112.8 first achieved in January 2005. Year-to-date, the freight index rose 0.6 percent, following a decline in December-to-March for the previous year (Table 3).

Transportation Services Index for Passengers

The TSI for passengers rose 2.5 percent in March from the February level, rising after three months of decline in the largest monthly increase since March 2005 (Table 8). The Passenger TSI March 2007 level of 113.8 was 2.5 percent higher than the March 2006 level, the fifth consecutive annual increase since a decline in 2002 (Table 9). Year-to-date, the passenger index rose 1.3 percent, continuing a string of December-to-March increases that began in 2003 (Table 3).

1st Quarter Changes

On a quarterly basis, the combined TSI rose 0.8 percent in the first quarter, rising for the second consecutive quarter (Table 10). The Freight TSI increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter, rising after two consecutive quarterly declines. The freight index has increased in only 16 of the 29 quarters since first quarter 2000 (Table 11). The Passenger TSI rose 1.3 percent in the first quarter, rising after a one quarter decline. The passenger index rose in all but two of the 15 quarters beginning with the third quarter of 2003 (Table 12).

More on TSI

Note: TSI numbers for November 2006 (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The November TSI is 108.8, revised from the 109.1 reported in the April release. The November Freight TSI is 107.1, revised from 107.6. The November Passenger TSI is 113.5, revised from 111.0. The TSI for December, January, February and March are preliminary.

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.