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Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 2.5 Percent in September from August
Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 2.5 Percent in September from August
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Thursday, November 13, 2008 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 2.5 percent in September from its August level, declining for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The index has dropped 4.3 percent in the past two months, dropping to a level equal to the four-year low set in September 2007 (Table 1).
The big declines of the past two months dropped the freight index into negative territory for the year. For the first nine months of 2008, the index declined 0.3 percent, the fourth consecutive December-to-September decline. The index declined 0.8 percent in the first nine months of 2007 before rebounding in the last quarter to finish the year down 0.1 percent (Table 3).
The September decline was the fifth largest monthly decline in the last 10 years while the August decline of 1.9 percent ranked as the eighth largest. They were both exceeded by the March decline of 2.9 percent, the second largest in 10 years and the largest since a 4.1 percent decline in March 2000 (Table 2). At 108.0 in September, the freight TSI has returned to its recent low of 108.0 in September 2007 and is down 4.5 percent from its historic peak of 113.1 reached in November 2005. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight transportation industries. The index consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.
The September 2008 freight TSI level was unchanged from the September 2007 level of 108.0. The last rise in the freight TSI on a September-to-September basis was between September 2004 and September 2005, when the index rose by 0.4 percent (Table 4).
Despite the losses since 2004, the freight index has increased 3.5 percent in five years and 8.2 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. It includes historic data from 1990 to the present. Release of the October index is scheduled for Dec. 10.
BTS has issued a new technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 1.6 percent in September from its August level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI September 2008 level of 114.9 was 2.1 percent lower than the September 2007 level, marking the first year-to-year decrease since September 2001 (Table 7). The passenger index declined for the first nine months of the year for the first time since 2001 (Table 3). However, the passenger index is up 17.0 percent in five years and 27.6 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger transportation industries. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 2.3 percent in September from its August level (Table 8). The combined TSI September 2008 level of 109.4 was 0.5 percent lower than the September 2007 level, and last had a September-to-September increase in September 2005 (Table 9). The combined index also fell for the first nine months of the year following a one year rise (Table 3). The combined index is up 6.7 percent in five years and 13.2 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
3rd Quarter Changes
On a quarterly basis, the Freight TSI fell 3.1 percent in the third quarter in the biggest quarterly decline since the first quarter of 2000 after rising in the second quarter (Table 10). The Passenger TSI fell 1.7 percent in the third quarter, falling for the second consecutive quarter (Table 11). The Combined TSI fell 2.8 percent in the third quarter, falling for the first time in five quarters (Table 12).
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for May (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The May Freight TSI is 109.9, revised from the 111.4 reported in the October release. The May Passenger TSI is 118.4, revised from 116.9. The May Combined TSI is 111.6, revised from 112.4. The TSI for June, July, August and September are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since March 2008
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
| Freight | Passenger | Combined | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| March | 108.3 | -2.9 | 117.4 | 0.8 | 110.1 | -2.0 |
| April | 109.5 | 1.1 | 118.2 | 0.7 | 111.2 | 1.0 |
| MayR | 109.9 | 0.4 | 118.4 | 0.1 | 111.6 | 0.3 |
| JuneP | 111.5 | 1.4 | 116.9 | -1.3 | 112.5 | 0.8 |
| JulyP | 112.9 | 1.2 | 116.3 | -0.5 | 113.4 | 0.8 |
| AugustP | 110.8 | -1.9 | 116.8 | 0.4 | 111.9 | -1.3 |
| SeptemberP | 108.0 | -2.5 | 114.9 | -1.6 | 109.4 | -2.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
| 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 2.8 |
| February | -0.9 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| March | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -2.9 |
| April | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 1.1 |
| May | 0.0 | 2.4 | -0.1 | (R) 0.4 |
| June | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 | (P) 1.4 |
| July | -0.5 | -0.9 | 0.1 | (P) 1.2 |
| August | 1.0 | -2.5 | 0.5 | (P) -1.9 |
| September | -1.3 | 0.9 | -0.9 | (P) -2.5 |
| October | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.7 | |
| November | 2.8 | -1.4 | 0.4 | |
| December | -1.7 | 0.6 | -1.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 1999-2008
Percent change from December of previous year
December to September
| Year | Freight | Passenger | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| 2000 | -5.9 | 7.7 | -1.8 |
| 2001 | -0.4 | -21.5 | -7.0 |
| 2002 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 4.7 |
| 2003 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 2004 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| 2005 | -0.5 | 4.5 | 0.7 |
| 2006 | -1.3 | 3.6 | -0.1 |
| 2007 | -0.8 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| 2008P | -0.3 | -2.0 | -0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 104.0 | 4.2 |
| 2000 | 98.8 | -5.0 |
| 2001 | 97.4 | -1.4 |
| 2002 | 102.5 | 5.2 |
| 2003 | 104.4 | 1.8 |
| 2004 | 109.9 | 5.3 |
| 2005 | 110.4 | 0.4 |
| 2006 | 109.9 | -0.5 |
| 2007 | 108.0 | -1.7 |
| 2008P | 108.0 | 0.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2008 (September to September)
| Since September... | Duration in years | Freight TSI Percent change to September 2008 | Passenger TSI Percent change to September 2008 | Combined TSI Percent change to September 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 1 | 0.0 | -2.1 | -0.5 |
| 2006 | 2 | -1.7 | 2.0 | -0.8 |
| 2005 | 3 | -2.2 | 3.4 | -0.9 |
| 2004 | 4 | -1.7 | 9.4 | 0.9 |
| 2003 | 5 | 3.5 | 17.0 | 6.7 |
| 2002 | 6 | 5.4 | 22.5 | 9.5 |
| 2001 | 7 | 10.9 | 45.1 | 19.0 |
| 2000 | 8 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 9.3 |
| 1999 | 9 | 3.8 | 18.3 | 7.4 |
| 1998 | 10 | 8.2 | 27.6 | 13.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to September 2008 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
| 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| February | -0.1 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
| March | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| April | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| May | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | (R) 0.1 |
| June | 0.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 | (P) -1.3 |
| July | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | (P) -0.5 |
| August | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | (P) 0.4 |
| September | 1.4 | 0.9 | -0.1 | (P) -1.6 |
| October | -1.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | |
| November | 0.7 | -0.2 | -1.5 | |
| December | -0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 97.2 | 7.9 |
| 2000 | 102.6 | 5.6 |
| 2001 | 79.2 | -22.8 |
| 2002 | 93.8 | 18.5 |
| 2003 | 98.2 | 4.7 |
| 2004 | 105.1 | 7.0 |
| 2005 | 111.1 | 5.7 |
| 2006 | 112.7 | 1.4 |
| 2007 | 117.4 | 4.2 |
| 2008P | 114.9 | -2.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
| 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.6 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 2.1 |
| February | -0.7 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| March | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | -2.0 |
| April | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.0 |
| May | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 | (R) 0.3 |
| June | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.6 | (P) 0.8 |
| July | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 | (P) 0.8 |
| August | 0.8 | -1.9 | 0.7 | (P) -1.3 |
| September | -0.6 | 0.9 | -0.7 | (P) -2.3 |
| October | -0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | |
| November | 2.3 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| December | -1.5 | 0.7 | -1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 101.8 | 5.4 |
| 2000 | 100.0 | -1.8 |
| 2001 | 91.9 | -8.1 |
| 2002 | 99.9 | 8.7 |
| 2003 | 102.5 | 2.6 |
| 2004 | 108.4 | 5.7 |
| 2005 | 110.3 | 1.8 |
| 2006 | 110.2 | -0.1 |
| 2007 | 109.9 | -0.3 |
| 2008P | 109.4 | -0.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Freight
Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change from
the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 2000 | -4.8 | 0.3 | -1.4 | -0.9 |
| 2001 | 1.6 | -0.7 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| 2002 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 2003 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.5 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| 2005 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 0.8 |
| 2006 | -0.5 | 1.8 | -2.5 | -0.9 |
| 2007 | 0.8 | -1.3 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| 2008 | -0.1 | (P) 3.0 | (P) -3.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11:
Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.3 | -1.9 |
| 2000 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 2.5 | -1.6 |
| 2001 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -21.0 | 15.2 |
| 2002 | 2.0 | 1.4 | -0.6 | 4.1 |
| 2003 | -4.0 | -0.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 2005 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 | -2.1 |
| 2006 | 2.2 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 2007 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| 2008 | 0.1 | (P) -0.5 | (P) -1.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12:
Combined Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1999-2008
Percent change
from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 2.0 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| 2000 | -2.1 | 0.5 | -0.2 | -1.2 |
| 2001 | 0.9 | -0.5 | -7.4 | 3.9 |
| 2002 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| 2003 | -2.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| 2004 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| 2005 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| 2006 | 0.1 | 1.4 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 2007 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2008 | 0.0 | (P) 2.1 | (P) -2.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.