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Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 2.0 Percent in February from January
Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 2.0 Percent in February from January
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Wednesday, April 8, 2009 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 2.0 percent in February from its January level, rising from its lowest level in more than five years, the U.S. Department of Transportations Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The February increase was only the second since August and, at 2.0 percent, was the largest one-month rise since January 2008 and the fourth largest in the last five years (Tables 1, 2).
The 0.3 percent decline in the first two months of 2009 was the third decline to start the year in the last four years. The index rose 2.9 percent during the first two months of 2008 (Table 3).
Other than the January low of 102.7, the Freight TSI has not been this low since September 2003 when it was 104.4. The Freight TSI is down 7.4 percent from its historic peak of 113.1 reached in November 2005. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight transportation industries. The index consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.
The 6.0 percent decline from February 2008 to February 2009 left the freight index at its lowest February level since 2003 (Table 4).
Despite the February increase, the index is down 4.4 percent in the five years from February 2004, the third five-year decline in the 19-year history of TSI data. The first ever five-year decline was from December 2003 to December 2008. The index is still up 3.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. It includes historic data from 1990 to the present. Release of the March index is scheduled for May 13.
BTS has issued a technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers rose 0.1 percent in February from its January level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI February 2009 level of 112.8 was 3.2 percent lower than the February 2008 level, the first February-to-February decrease since 2002 (Table 7). Despite the recent declines, the passenger index is up 11.6 percent in five years and 20.5 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger transportation industries. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 1.5 percent in February from its January level (Table 8). The combined TSI February 2009 level of 106.4 was 5.3 percent lower than the February 2008 level, the third February-to-February decrease in the last four years (Table 9). The 5.3 percent decline from February to February left the combined index at its lowest February level since 2003 (Table 9). The combined index is down 0.6 percent in five years for the first five-year decline in the history of the combined index, but is up 7.4 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
Note: TSI numbers for October (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The October Freight TSI is 106.7, revised from the 109.1 reported in last months release. The October Passenger TSI is 114.9, revised from 114.3. The October Combined TSI is 108.3, revised from 110.1. The TSI for November, December, January and February are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since August 2008
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
| Freight | Passenger | Combined | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| August | 108.7 | -2.3 | 116.8 | -1.3 | 110.3 | -2.0 |
| September | 107.0 | -1.6 | 116.3 | -0.4 | 108.9 | -1.3 |
| OctoberR | 106.7 | -0.3 | 114.9 | -1.2 | 108.3 | -0.5 |
| NovemberP | 107.6 | 0.9 | 114.0 | -0.8 | 108.8 | 0.5 |
| DecemberP | 105.1 | -2.3 | 113.0 | -0.9 | 106.7 | -1.9 |
| JanuaryP | 102.7 | -2.3 | 112.6 | -0.3 | 104.8 | -1.8 |
| FebruaryP | 104.8 | 2.0 | 112.8 | 0.1 | 106.4 | 1.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
|
2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | 2009 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.4 | -0.3 | 2.8 | (P) -2.3 |
| February | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | (P) 2.0 |
| March | 0.4 | 1.1 | -2.9 | |
| April | -0.3 | -0.4 | 1.1 | |
| May | 2.4 | -0.1 | 0.4 | |
| June | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.2 | |
| July | -0.9 | 0.1 | 1.4 | |
| August | -2.5 | 0.5 | -2.3 | |
| September | 0.9 | -0.9 | -1.6 | |
| October | -0.1 | 1.7 | (R) -0.3 | |
| November | -1.4 | 0.4 | (P) 0.9 | |
| December | 0.6 | -1.7 | (P) -2.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2000-2009
Percent change from December of previous year
December to February
| Year | Freight | Passenger | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -0.8 | 1.5 | -0.1 |
| 2001 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| 2002 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 2003 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -2.5 |
| 2004 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 2005 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 2006 | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.4 |
| 2007 | -0.3 | -2.1 | -0.7 |
| 2008 | 2.9 | -0.6 | 2.0 |
| 2009P | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
|
Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 104.1 | 2.4 |
| 2001 | 98.5 | -5.4 |
| 2002 | 98.9 | 0.4 |
| 2003 | 102.1 | 3.2 |
| 2004 | 109.6 | 7.4 |
| 2005 | 111.9 | 2.1 |
| 2006 | 110.2 | -1.5 |
| 2007 | 108.5 | -1.5 |
| 2008 | 111.5 | 2.7 |
| 2009P | 104.8 | -6.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2009 (February to February)
| Since February... | Duration in years | Freight TSI Percent change to February 2009 | Passenger TSI Percent change to February 2009 | Combined TSI Percent change to February 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 1 | -6.0 | -3.2 | -5.3 |
| 2007 | 2 | -3.4 | 0.9 | -2.4 |
| 2006 | 3 | -4.9 | 2.4 | -3.2 |
| 2005 | 4 | -6.4 | 4.7 | -3.8 |
| 2004 | 5 | -4.4 | 11.6 | -0.6 |
| 2003 | 6 | 2.7 | 18.8 | 6.5 |
| 2002 | 7 | 5.9 | 21.2 | 9.5 |
| 2001 | 8 | 6.4 | 12.1 | 7.3 |
| 2000 | 9 | 0.6 | 16.6 | 4.6 |
| 1999 | 10 | 3.1 | 20.5 | 7.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to February 2009 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
|
2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | 2009 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | (P) -0.3 |
| February | -0.6 | -2.0 | -0.5 | (P) 0.1 |
| March | 1.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | |
| April | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | |
| May | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | |
| June | -1.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | |
| July | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | |
| August | 0.0 | 1.1 | -1.3 | |
| September | 0.9 | -0.1 | -0.4 | |
| October | 0.4 | 0.7 | (R) -1.2 | |
| November | -0.2 | -1.5 | (P) -0.8 | |
| December | 1.1 | 0.7 | (P) -0.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
|
Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 96.7 | 3.4 |
| 2001 | 100.6 | 4.0 |
| 2002 | 93.1 | -7.5 |
| 2003 | 95.0 | 2.0 |
| 2004 | 101.0 | 6.4 |
| 2005 | 107.8 | 6.7 |
| 2006 | 110.2 | 2.2 |
| 2007 | 111.7 | 1.4 |
| 2008 | 116.5 | 4.3 |
| 2009P | 112.8 | -3.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2006-2009
Percent change from
previous month
|
2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | 2008 % Growth | 2009 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.8 | -0.3 | 2.1 | (P) -1.8 |
| February | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 | (P) 1.5 |
| March | 0.6 | 1.4 | -2.0 | |
| April | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.0 | |
| May | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| June | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.1 | |
| July | -0.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | |
| August | -1.9 | 0.7 | -2.0 | |
| September | 0.9 | -0.7 | -1.3 | |
| October | 0.1 | 1.4 | (R) -0.5 | |
| November | -1.1 | -0.1 | (P) 0.5 | |
| December | 0.7 | -1.1 | (P) -1.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February
Combined TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
|
TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 101.7 | 2.7 |
| 2001 | 99.2 | -2.5 |
| 2002 | 97.1 | -2.1 |
| 2003 | 99.9 | 2.9 |
| 2004 | 107.0 | 7.1 |
| 2005 | 110.6 | 3.3 |
| 2006 | 109.9 | -0.6 |
| 2007 | 109.0 | -0.8 |
| 2008 | 112.4 | 3.1 |
| 2009P | 106.4 | -5.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger air
transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.