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Freight Shipments Fell 0.2% in October from September

Freight Shipments Fell 0.2% in October from September

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Freight Transportation Services Index, November 2009-October 2011

Table Version | Excel | CSV

Freight Transportation Services Index, November 2009-October 2011

Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2011 - The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry fell 0.2 percent in October from September, the first monthly decrease after four consecutive increases, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS) Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) released today (Table 1).

BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that at 109.4 the level of freight shipments, measured by the Freight TSI, declined slightly from the recent peak achieved in September, but still remained higher than any other month since July 2008 (Table 2A).

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in ton-miles, which are then combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Trend: Shipments in October 2011 (109.4 on the index) were at the second highest level since July 2008 (109.9) after reaching the highest level in more than three years in September (109.6). July 2008, the previous high, was followed by six straight months of decline. After dipping to a recent low in April 2009 (94.3), freight shipments increased in 21 of the last 30 months, rising 16.0 percent during that period (Tables 2, 2A). For additional historic data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

Year-to-date: For the first 10 months of 2011, freight shipments measured by the index were up 2.3 percent (Table 3).

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in October 2011 (109.4 on the index) rose 16.0 percent from the recent low in April 2009 (94.3). In April 2009, freight shipments were at their lowest level since June 1997 (92.3). The October 2011 level is down 3.5 percent from the historic freight shipment peak reached in January 2005 (113.3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are down 0.5 percent in the five years from October 2006. Shipments are up 11.6 percent in the 10 years from October 2001 despite declines in recent years (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: Although October 2011 freight shipments rose 4.0 percent from October 2010 and 12.4 percent from October 2009, they remain below the all-time high for the month of October (110.4) reached in both 2004 and 2005 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI is a seasonally adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. It includes historic data from 1990 to the present. Release of the November index is scheduled for Jan. 11.

For a webinar on the TSI, see Past Webinars. For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers fell 0.3 percent in October from its September level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI October 2011 level of 116.1 was 1.2 percent above the October 2010 level (Table 7). The index is up 3.8 percent in five years and up 39.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5).

The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel conducted in the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.3 percent in October from its September level (Table 8). The combined TSI October 2011 level of 111.2 was 3.2 percent above the October 2010 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 0.7 percent in five years and up 18.9 percent in 10 years despite recent declines (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: TSI numbers for June (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The June Freight TSI is 107.8, revised from 108.3 reported in last month's release. The June Passenger TSI is 114.9, revised from 115.7. The June Combined TSI is 109.7, revised from 110.3. The TSI for July, August, September and October are preliminary.

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

More information about the comprehensive revision conducted with the March release is provided under 2011 Comprehensive Revision at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since April 2011
Percent Change by Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  Freight Passenger Combined
Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change
April 107.4 -1.0 114.3 -0.1 109.2 -0.8
May 105.2 -2.1 115.6 1.2 107.9 -1.2
JuneR 107.8 2.5 114.9 -0.6 109.7 1.6
JulyP 108.3 0.5 117.1 1.9 110.6 0.9
AugustP 108.7 0.4 115.4 -1.4 110.5 -0.1
SeptemberP 109.6 0.9 116.5 0.9 111.4 0.9
OctoberP 109.4 -0.2 116.1 -0.3 111.2 -0.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2008-2011
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2008 % Change 2009 % Change 2010 % Change 2011 % Change
January 1.8 -2.4 0.5 1.0
February -0.2 2.8 1.1 -1.4
March -1.7 -4.0 1.2 2.0
April 0.6 -1.6 0.1 -1.0
May -0.1 0.3 0.5 -2.1
June -0.4 1.0 -0.1 (R) 2.5
July 0.2 1.6 0.3 (P) 0.5
August -1.7 1.5 -0.4 (P) 0.4
September -1.0 -0.5 1.1 (P) 0.9
October -1.1 -0.7 0.2 (P) -0.2
November -2.5 2.9 -0.7  
December -3.6 0.6 2.4  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2008-2011

Excel | CSV

  2008 2009 2010 2011
January 111.8 97.1 101.1 107.9
February 111.6 99.8 102.3 106.4
March 109.6 95.9 103.6 108.6
April 110.3 94.3 103.7 107.4
May 110.2 94.6 104.2 105.2
June 109.7 95.5 104.0 (R) 107.8
July 109.9 97.1 104.3 (P) 108.3
August 108.1 98.5 103.9 (P) 108.7
September 107.0 98.0 105.0 (P) 109.6
October 105.8 97.3 105.2 (P) 109.4
November 103.2 100.1 104.4  
December 99.4 100.7 106.9  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2002-2011
Percent change from December of previous year
December to October

Excel | CSV

Year Freight Passenger Combined
2002 6.0 6.2 6.1
2003 1.2 -0.2 0.8
2004 2.7 6.0 3.7
2005 0.2 1.1 0.5
2006 -1.4 2.5 -0.3
2007 -0.4 2.0 0.3
2008 -3.7 -3.9 -3.8
2009 -2.1 -0.9 -1.8
2010 4.4 4.3 4.4
2011P 2.3 2.5 2.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent Change in the October Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  October Freight TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2002 103.7 5.8
2003 105.7 1.9
2004 110.4 4.4
2005 110.4 0.1
2006 109.9 -0.5
2007 109.3 -0.5
2008 105.8 -3.2
2009 97.3 -8.0
2010 105.2 8.1
2011P 109.4 4.0

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2011 (October to October)

Excel | CSV

Since October... Duration in years Freight TSI Percent change to October 2011 Passenger TSI Percent change to October 2011 Combined TSI Percent change to October 2011
2010 1 4.0 1.2 3.2
2009 2 12.4 5.7 10.5
2008 3 3.4 3.2 3.3
2007 4 0.1 -0.3 -0.1
2006 5 -0.5 3.8 0.7
2005 6 -1.0 7.8 1.5
2004 7 -0.9 9.0 1.8
2003 8 3.5 19.3 7.7
2002 9 5.5 21.7 9.9
2001 10 11.6 39.7 18.9

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: The percent changes to October 2011 are all preliminary.

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2008-2011
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2008 % Change 2009 % Change 2010 % Change 2011 % Change
January -0.2 -1.0 0.6 0.2
February 1.4 0.5 -2.1 -0.2
March -1.3 -1.4 2.3 0.9
April 0.0 1.4 0.2 -0.1
May 0.6 -1.7 0.6 1.2
June -0.9 0.5 0.8 (R) -0.6
July -0.1 1.5 -0.2 (P) 1.9
August -1.3 -0.1 0.2 (P) -1.4
September -1.4 -0.6 1.0 (P) 0.9
October -0.8 0.1 0.9 (P) -0.3
November -1.7 -0.1 -0.3  
December 0.1 0.2 -1.0  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the October Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  October Passenger TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2002 95.4 14.8
2003 97.4 2.1
2004 106.5 9.4
2005 107.7 1.1
2006 111.9 3.9
2007 116.5 4.1
2008 112.5 -3.4
2009 109.8 -2.4
2010 114.7 4.4
2011P 116.1 1.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2008-2011
Percent change from previous month

Excel | CSV

  2008 % Change 2009 % Change 2010 % Change 2011 % Change
January 1.2 -2.0 0.5 0.7
February 0.2 2.2 0.2 -1.1
March -1.6 -3.3 1.5 1.7
April 0.4 -0.8 0.1 -0.8
May 0.1 -0.3 0.5 -1.2
June -0.6 0.9 0.1 (R) 1.6
July 0.1 1.6 0.1 (P) 0.9
August -1.6 1.1 -0.2 (P) -0.1
September -1.1 -0.5 1.0 (P) 0.9
October -1.0 -0.5 0.4 (P) -0.3
November -2.3 2.1 -0.6  
December -2.6 0.5 1.5  

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the October Combined TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

Excel | CSV

  October Combined TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2002 101.2 8.2
2003 103.2 2.0
2004 109.1 5.8
2005 109.6 0.4
2006 110.4 0.7
2007 111.2 0.8
2008 107.6 -3.3
2009 100.6 -6.5
2010 107.7 7.1
2011P 111.2 3.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:

For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:

Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.